Investigating zero transmission of HIV in the MSM population: a UK modelling case study

Table 5 Results for the NHS-commissioned PrEP base case scenario and future scenario

	NHS-commissioned PrEP base case scenario^a	Future scenario with 2021 PrEP use data and 99% TasP
Year zero transmission is reached	NR	2028
Additional HIV cases over the model time horizon	101,684	54,675
Cases avoided, compared with the base case scenario with 2021 PrEP data, over the time horizon	N/A	47,009
Lifetime risk of acquiring HIV for HIV-negative MSM not using PrEP	13.20%	7.28%

Footnotes: Model time horizon is 50 years (2020–2070). ^aTasP is set to 97% in the base case scenario. HIV: human immunodeficiency virus; MSM: men who have sex with men; N/A: not applicable; NHS: National Health Service; NR: not reached; PrEP: pre-exposure prophylaxis; TasP: treatment as prevention

ISSN: 2049-3258