Table 2 Summary of parameter estimates, with base case values, range, distributions and sources
From: Evaluating the neonatal BCG vaccination programme in Ireland
Parameter | Base case estimate | Range for one-way sensitivity analysis | Probability distribution for PSA | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Incidence of TB: see Table 1. | ||||
Vaccine efficacy | Probability | |||
Pulmonary TB | 0.74 | 0.45–0.87 | Beta | |
Extrapulmonary TB | 0.84 | 0.66–0.92 | Beta | |
TB Meningitis | 0.73 | 0.66–0.79 | Beta | |
TB Deaths | 0.67 | 0.19–0.86 | Beta | |
Scenario Analysis: 0–25 year old cohort | ||||
Vaccine Efficacy (against TB) | 0.55 | 0.31–0.77 | Beta | [39] |
Vaccine Efficacy (against TB death) | 0.44 | −0.22–0.75 | Beta | [39] |
Direct costs- children (average cost per acute episode per child) | ||||
Pulmonary TB | €8,153 | +/−20 % | Log Normal | NCPE 2012 |
Extrapulmonary TB | €12,223 | +/−20 % | Log Normal | NCPE 2012 |
TB Meningitis | €15,752 | +/−20 % | Log Normal | NCPE 2012 |
Contact tracing per primary case of TB | €4,248 | +/−20 % | Log Normal | HSE East 2012 |
Latent TB per primary case of TB | €4,203 | +/−20 % | Log Normal | NCPE 2012 |
Long term costs due to meningitis (over 15 years) | €36,225.39 | +/−20 % | Log Normal | NCPE 2012 |
Vaccine Ingredient costs (per strategy) | ||||
Universal (80 % of the cost of distributed vaccine in 2012) | €155,215 | +/−20 % | Fixed | National Immunisation Office / HSE procurement |
Selective (50 % of the cost of distributed vaccine in 2012) | €97,010 | |||
Administration cost per dose | National Immunisation Office / HSE procurement | |||
Universal | €27.75 per dose | Point | ||
Selective | €50 per dose | +/−50 % | ||
Vaccine coverage | Uniform | |||
Universal | 80 % | 79–97 % | ||
Selective | 44 % | 38–50 % | ||
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) | 0.8 % | 0.5–1.1 % | Beta | [16] |
Discount rate for costs and benefits | 4 % | 0–6 % | Point | [38] |
Incidence of adverse events | 1/1000 | > 1/10,000 to < 1/100 | Beta multiplier | [25] |
Costs per treatment for adverse event | €2,895 | +/−20 % | Log Normal | NCPE 2012 |
Multiplier used for high risk population | 3-fold | x 2–x 8 | Uniform (on log scale) | [8] |
Proportion of birth cohort estimated to be at high risk | 11.7 % | 10.7–12.7 % | Uniform | [7] |
Indirect Costs Value of work loss/week for parent of children with an adverse event or TB | €476.40 | [40] | ||
Percentage of parents taking time of work | Not included | 42 % | Not included | [41] |
Number of days of work lost | 4 | |||