Table 2 Incidence correction factors for northern Nigeria CMAM program 2014 and 2015 and the data used to calculate them

Population

N

3,550,827

4,281,700

Nigeria census 2006 corrected for population growth and migration. Population is for children aged between 6 and 59 months in districts in which CMAM services were delivered.

Prevalence^a

P

1.60% (0.50%; 2.71%)

2.01% (0.82%; 3.19%)

Pooled prevalence from state level SMART surveys

Program Coverage^b

C

36.6% (32.3%; 40.9%)

36.6% (32.3%; 40.9%)

Wide-area SLEAC survey

Observed caseload

L

320,047

398,676

Routine program monitoring data

Expected caseload (using K = 1.6)

E _K = 1.6 = CNP(1 + K)

54,063

81,897

C, N, and P as above (C and P expressed as proportions). Calculations are based on K = 1.6

Difference (observed − expected)

L − E _K = 1.6

265,984

316,779

Calculated as the difference between observed caseload (L) and expected caseload (E).

Prevalence × Coverage

PC

0.59% (0.29%; 1.18%)

0.74% (0.40%; 1.34%)

Calculated (see text)

Incidence correction factor^c

\( K=\frac{L}{PCN}-1 \)

14.39 (6.64; 30.02)

11.66 (5.94; 22.10)

Calculated (see text)

Expected caseload (using pooled adjusted incidence correction factor)

E _{K = 13.02} = CNP(1 + K)

291,527

441,612

C, N, and P as above (C and P expressed as proportions). Calculations are based on K = 13.02 (see text).

Difference (observed − expected)

L − E _{K = 13.02}

28,520

−42,936

Calculated as the difference between observed caseload (L) and expected caseload (E _K = 13.02 ).