Fig. 4

Estimated sequential attributable fractions, by position in elmination order. We can be 95% confident the true estimate (that would be calculated from the procedure when the number of simulations m→∞) lies in the Monte Carlo interval around the point estimate. The estimates shaded red correspond to the Bayesian network in Fig. 1, whereas the estimates shaded blue correspond to the Bayesian network in Fig. 3. Note that the Monte Carlo error at position k incorporates variation due to random selection of the set of risk factors/exposures that are intervened on in stages 1,... k−1, and also variation based on the recursive simulation of the disease response described in the main text