Reference | Population | Gold standard | Number of candidate predictors | Type of predictors | Sample size | Modeling method | Final model |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aldobyany [12] | All patients screened for COVID-19 at a tertiary care facility | RT-PCR test | 11 | Exposure risk Clinical signs Symptoms Clinical history | 1435 | Score Logistic regression | Exposure risk: A history of travel abroad during the 14 days prior to symptoms onset. OR Visiting or being a resident of a high-risk area for COVID-19 in the kingdom during the 14 days prior to symptom onset. OR A close physical contact with a confirmed case of COVID-19 or MERS-COV in the past 14 days. OR An exposure to camel or camel products in the past 14 days. OR Working in a healthcare facility = 3 points Fever or recent history of fever = 2 points Cough = 2 points Shortness of breath = 2 points Nausea, vomiting, and/or diarrhea = 1 point Chronic renal failure, CAD/heart failure, Immunocompromised patient = 1 point Maximum = 11 points Discriminative score: 4 points or 5 points Multivariate analysis (not used as a model) Sex (male): OR = 1.47 (1.03–2.09), p = 0.034 Healthcare workers and their family members: OR = 1.99 (1.14–3.50), p = 0.016 Fever: OR: 2.98 (1.97–4.5), p < 0.001 Moderate disease severity: OR = 5 (1.23–20), p < 0.001 |
Bar [13] | Adults admitted to emergency room | RT-PCR test | 21 | Clinical data Imaging Laboratory test | 100 | Logistic regression | Logistic regression: Intercept: β = − 1.95 qSOFA score > 1: β = 0.05; OR = 1.05 (1.01–1.10) Upper sites B-lines ≥3: β = 0.42; OR = 1.52 (1.31–1.79) Lower sites thickened pleura: β = 0.55; OR = 1.73 (1.49–1.98) Lower sites consolidation: β = 0.87; OR = 2.39 (2.07–2.69) Posterolateral sites thickened pleura: β = 0.68; OR = 1.97 (1.72–2.22) |
Callejon-Leblic [17] | Individuals aged 18 or older that were suspected of having COVID-19 | RT-PCR test | 11 | Demographics Clinical data Symptoms | 777 | Logistic regression Machine learning | x = − 1.76 + 0.88 × ((1 if VAS for loss of smell ≥21) or (0 if VAS for loss of smell < 21)) + 1.83 × ((1 if VAS for loss of taste ≥44) or (0 if VAS for loss of taste < 44)) + 0.79 × ((1 if VAS for dyspnea ≥28) or (0 if VAS for dyspnea < 28)) + 0.61 × ((1 if fever) or (0 if no fever)) + 0.70 × ((1 if diarrhea) or (0 if no diarrhea)) − 1.13 × ((1 if female) or (0 if male)) Loss of smell: OR (95%CI) = 2.42 (1.3–4.5), p = 0.0053 Loss of taste: OR (95%CI) = 6.21 (3.21–12.04), p < 0.001 Dyspnea: OR (95%CI) = 2.21 (1.34–3.64), p = 0.002 Fever: OR (95%CI) = 1.84 (1.18–2.87), p = 0.007 Diarrhea: OR (95%CI) = 2.02 (1.29–3.16), p = 0.002 Sex (Male): OR (95%CI) = 3.11 (1.97–4.90), p < 0.001 |
Fink [18] | Patients’ age > 18 years admitted to hospital for minimum 24 h | RT-PCR test | 9 | Demographics Symptoms Laboratory test | 581 | Logistic regression | Final logistic regression: Age: β = 0.018; SE = 0.008, z = 2.18, P > z = 0.029, 95%CI = 0.001–0.033 Fever: β = 1.547; SE = 0.2931, z = 5.28, P > z = 0.000, 95%CI = 0.973–2.122 Maximal FiO2: β = 0.022; SE = 0.007, z = 2.94, P > z = 0.003, 95%CI = 0.007–0.0372 CRP: β = 0.0045; SE = 0.0016, z = 2.174 P > z = 0.006, 95%CI = 0.001–0.0078 Normal chest X-ray: β = − 1.113497; SE = 0.2879424, z = − 3.87, P > z = 0.000, 95%CI = − 1.677854- -0.5491403 Neutrophiles: β = − 0.1611107; SE = 0.0321778, z = − 5.01, P > z = 0.000, 95%CI = − 0.2241779- -0.0980434 Intercept: β = − 0.0367507; SE = 0.6817362, z = − 0.05, P > z = 0.957, 95%CI = − 1.372929-1.299428 |
Gupta-Wright [19] | Patients were included in this study if they were admitted via the acute medical team between 2 March and 3 May 2020 inclusive. | RT-PCR test | 15 | Demographics Comorbidities Symptoms Laboratory test | 2940 | Logistic regression Score | Intercept = −4.0 (− 4.4 - -3.6) Age (50–70): β = 0.53 (0–0.41); Point = 1 Sex (Male): β = 0.23 (0.3–0.73); Point = 1 Ethnicity - Asian: 0.6 (0.4–0.82); Point =1 Ethnicity - Black: 0.62 (0.3–0.93); Point = 1 Ethnicity - Mixed/other: 0.81 (0.4–1.2); Point = 1 Ethnicity - Unknown: 0.57 (0.3–0.85); Point = 1 Cough, fever or shortness of breath: 1.13 (0.9–1.35); Point = 1 National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS) > 5: 0.87 (0.7–1.05); Point = 2 CRP > 50: 1.13 (1–1.32); Point = 2 Lymphocytes < 1: 0.54 (0.4–0.73); Point = 1 Chest X-ray - Lung infiltrates: 1.32 (1.1–1.59); Point = 2 Chest X-ray - Other abnormality: 0.66 (0.3–0.98); Point = 2 |
Huang [20] | All suspected patients at admission | RT-PCR test | 71 | Demographics Comorbidities Vital signs Symptoms CT imaging Laboratory test | 475 | Logistic regression Score | Logistic regression: Epidemiological exposure histories (OR:13.32, 95%CI, 6.39–27.75), symptoms of weakness/fatigue at admission (OR:4.51, 95%CI, 1.70–11.96), heart rate less than 100 beat/min at admission (OR:3.80; 95%CI, 2.00–7.22), imaging characteristics of bilateral pneumonia (OR:3.60, 95%CI, 1.83–7.10), neutrophil count less than equal to 6.3 × 109 /L at admission (OR: 6.77, 95%CI, 2.52–18.19), eosinophil count less than equal to 0.02 × 109/L at admission (OR:3.14, 95%CI, 1.58–6.22), glucose more than equal to 6 mmol/L at admission (OR:2.43, 95%CI, 1.04–5.66), D-dimer more than equal to 0.5 mg/L at admission (OR:3.49; 95%CI, 1.22–9.96), and CRP less than 5 mg/L at admission (OR:3.83, 95%CI, 1.86–7.92) Score: Epidemiological exposure histories: 13 points Neutrophil count, × 109/L, ≤6.3: 7 points Weakness/fatigue: 5 points Bilateral pneumonia: 4 points Heart rate (beat/min), < 100: 4 points CRP, mg/L, < 5: 4 points Eosinophil count, × 109/L, ≤0.02: 3 points D-dimer, mg/L, ≥0.5: 3 points Glucose, mmol/L, ≥6: 2 points |
Kurstjens [21] | Overcrowding of emergency departments | RT-PCR test | 8 | Demographics Laboratory test CT imaging | Model population: 375 Validation population: 592 | Score | Age: ≤75: 0 points, 76–79: 1 point, 80+: 2 points Sex: Female: 0 point, Male: 1 point CRP, mg/L: 0–9: 0 point, 10–14: 1 point, 15–38: 2 points, 39–69: 3 points, 70–193: 2 points, 194–303: 1 point, 304+: 0 point Ferritin, μg/L: ≤15: − 1 point, 16–179: 0 point, 180–301: 1 point, 302–538: 2 points, ≥539: 3 points LDH, U/L: ≤257: 0 point, 258–265: 1 point, 266–397: 2 points, ≥398: 3 points ALC, 10^9/L: ≤1.2: 1 point, ≥1.3: 0 point ANC, 10^9/L: ≤5.1: 0 point, 5.2–7.9: − 1 point, 8.0–9.0: − 2 points, 9.1–10.3: − 3 points Chest X-ray: no infiltrate: 0 point, unilateral infiltrate: 1 point, bilateral infiltrate: 4 points |
McDonald [22] | All patients greater than 18 years presenting to a single academic ED who were tested for COVID-19 during this index ED evaluation | RT-PCR test | 44 | Clinical data Demographics Symptoms Contact tracing Laboratory test | 1026 | Logistic regression Random forest XGBoost | Final logistic regression: Intercept: β = − 36 WBC: β = − 0.59, OR = 0.6 (0.4–0.8) Temperature: β = 0.44, OR = 1.6 (1.2–2.0) Known exposure: β = 1.51, OR = 4.5 (2.4–8.7) Positive chest X-ray: β = 1.69, OR = 5.4 (3–10) |
Nakakubo [23] | Patients suspected of having COVID-19 | RT-PCR test | 31 | Demographics Comorbidities Patient history Symptoms Respiratory failure Laboratory test CT imaging Differential diagnosis | 131 | Score | Blood test score WBC < 8000 (count/μL) = 1 point Eosinophil < 50 (count/μL) = 1 point Procalcitonin < 0.5 (ng/mL) and CRP ≥ 0.5 (mg/dL) = 1 point CT imaging score Ground glass opacity; with or without consolidation = 1 point Multipolar or bilateral lesions = 1 point Subpleural or lower lung dominant distribution = 1 point No atypical signs = 1 point Alternative diagnosis score (choose one) More likely other diagnosis = 0 point Hard to determine = 2 points More likely COVID-19 = 4 points Maximum 11 points 0–4 points: Low risk 5–7 points: Moderate risk 8–11: High risk |
Plante [24] | Patients aged ≥20 years from 66 hospitals | RT-PCR test | 29 | Laboratory test | Training dataset: 12183 Sensitivity analysis dataset: 7842 External validation dataset: 172754 | XGBoost | XGBoost model Eosinophils (%) 23.62 Calcium total (mg/dL) 16.85 AST (IU/L) 9.45 WBC (K/uL) 6.73 Basophils (%) 6.36 RDW (%) 5.13 RBC (m/uL) 5.11 Albumin (g/dL) 4.65 Bilirubin total (mg/dL) 4.30 MCV (fL) 3.98 MCH (pg) 3.49 Sodium (mEq/L) 3.29 Bicarbonate (mEq/L) 2.97 BUN (mg/dL) 2.40 Chloride (mEq/L) 1.68 Total score/100 |
Sung [16] | Patients who were admitted to the hospital from the emergency room to regular floors and tested for COVID-19 | RT-PCR test | 38 | Demographics Medical history Contact tracing Laboratory test Symptoms Chest X ray imaging | Development cohort = 203 Validation cohort = 135 | Logistic regression Score | Nursing facility residence: 9.63 (3.02–30.67), p < 0.001, Points: 10/2/3 Obesity: 2.93 (1.32–6.51), p = 0.008, Points: 3/1/1 Hypoxia: 3.52 (1.58–7.83), p = 0.002, Points: 4/1/1 Sick contact: 10.47 (2.67–41.04), p = 0.001, Points: 10/2/3 Constitutional symptom (fever, chills or myalgia): 2.31 (1.05–5.10), p = 0.038, Points: 2/1/1 Respiratory symptom (cough or shortness of breath): 4.36 (1.73–10.98), p = 0.002, Points: 4/1/1 Gastrointestinal symptom (nausea, vomiting or diarrhea): 4.11 (1.59–10.64), p = 0.004, Points: 4/1/1 Leukocytosis: 0.33 (0.12–0.90), p = 0.030, Points: − 3/− 1/− 1 |
Tordjman [14] | Subjects with clinical suspicion of SARS-CoV-2 infection | Both RT-PCR test and CT-Scan | 31 | Demographics Comorbidities Symptoms Laboratory test | Derivation cohort: 100 Validation cohort: 300 | XGBoost | Logistic regression: Basophils < 4G/L: β = 1.66, OR = 5.27, p-value = 0.03 Eosinophils < 0.06 G/L: β = 1.98, OR = 7.23, p-value = 0.01 Lymphocytes < 1.3 G/L: β = 2.54, OR = 12.72, p-value = 0.001 Neutrophils <5G/L: β = 2.10, OR = 8.17, p-value = 0.006 Score: Eosinophils < 0.06 G/L: 1 point Lymphocytes < 1.3 G/L: 2 points Neutrophils <5G/L: 1 point Basophils < 0.04 G/L: 1 point Score, maximum 5 points: 0–1 - > low probability, 2–3: intermediate probability, ≥ 4 points |
Vieceli [15] | Patients aged 18 or older admitted to hospital due to suspected COVID-19 | RT-PCR test | 43 | Clinical data Laboratory test X ray imaging | 100 | Logistic regression | Logistic regression: Leukocyte count < 7.7 × 103 mm3: OR(CI) = 17.63 (3.68–84.7), p-value < 0.001 LDH > 273 U/L: OR(CI) = 5.42 (1.18–24.7), p-value = 0.03 Any chest radiographic abnormality: OR(CI) =27.8 (2.5–309.1), p-value = 0.007 Score: Two points for LDH > 273 U/L, three for leukocyte count ≤7.7 × 103 per mm3 and four for any chest radiography abnormality. A result ≥5 points was considered positive. |