Applying time series modeling to assess the dynamics and forecast monthly reports of abuse, neglect and/or exploitation involving a vulnerable adult

Table 2 ARIMA models and selection criteria

	Phase 1: January 2015 to January 2016 (22 counties)					Phase 2: May 2017 to November 2017 (24 counties)
ARIMA Model	AIC	SBC	R²	MSE	Ljung_Box p-value	AIC	SBC	R²	MSE	Ljung_Box p-value
p(12); q = 1; d = 1	−74.22	−68.31	0.86	0.013	0.47	−51.13	−45.22	0.81	0.020	0.09
p = 0; q (1) (12); d = 1	- 70.94	−65.03	0.85	0.014	0.42	−49.52	−43.61	0.81	0.020	0.05
p (1) (12); q = 0; d = 1	−74.61	−68.70	0.86	0.013	0.16	−44.19	−38.28	0.78	0.023	0.004

ISSN: 2049-3258