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Table 4 Forecasted monthly APS intakes accepted for assessments

From: Applying time series modeling to assess the dynamics and forecast monthly reports of abuse, neglect and/or exploitation involving a vulnerable adult

Lead times

Phase 1: January 2015 to January 2016 (22 counties)

Phase 2: May 2017 to November 2017 (24 counties)

Date

Predicted APS intakes

95% CI

Predicted APS intakes

95% CI

July 2018

491

398, 592

337

254, 430

August 2018

520

412, 640

336

250, 433

September 2018

486

373, 613

340

250, 444

October 2018

512

385, 656

375

273, 491

November 2018

464

338, 608

391

280, 517

December 2018

447

318, 596

387

272, 519

 

Median

95% CI

Median

95% CI

July – December 2018

488

447, 520

358

336, 391

January – June 2018

446

407, 483

272

256, 309

Percent increase

9%

32%