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Table 4 Forecasted monthly APS intakes accepted for assessments

From: Applying time series modeling to assess the dynamics and forecast monthly reports of abuse, neglect and/or exploitation involving a vulnerable adult

Lead timesPhase 1: January 2015 to January 2016 (22 counties)Phase 2: May 2017 to November 2017 (24 counties)
DatePredicted APS intakes95% CIPredicted APS intakes95% CI
July 2018491398, 592337254, 430
August 2018520412, 640336250, 433
September 2018486373, 613340250, 444
October 2018512385, 656375273, 491
November 2018464338, 608391280, 517
December 2018447318, 596387272, 519
 Median95% CIMedian95% CI
July – December 2018488447, 520358336, 391
January – June 2018446407, 483272256, 309
Percent increase9%32%