Fig. 1

Hypothesized causal Bayesian network describing direct and indirect effects pertaining to causal risk factors and associated confounders for stroke. Abbreviations for variables in the causal graph are as follows. Sex: gender of participant; Region: Geographic area of participant either Western Europe, North America, Africa, South Asia, China, South America and South East Asia; Educ: years of education (None, less than 8, 9-12, more than 12); Stress: Summary variable for psychological stress (yes or no); Smoke: smoking status (current, ex-smoker, never smoker); Diet: AHEI diet score (in tertiles); Exer: physically active (yes or no); Alcoh: alcohol consumption (none; moderate; binge drinker); lipids: Apolipoproterion B/Apolipoprotein A1 ratio (in tertiles); WHR: waist hip ratio (in tertiles); HBP: clinically diagnosed high blood pressure (yes or no); HD (history of risk factors for heart disease - yes or no); DM (clinically diagnosed diabetes mellitus or measured Hba1c level at least 4.5 - yes or no)