Fig. 1

Active cases over time. Model simulations for detected (solid) and total (including asymptomatic; dotted) active cases over time for different scenarios. Notice the different scaling for detected (left axis) vs. total (right axis) cases. For each scenario, the results for high (DR≈40%), medium (DR≈10%), and low (DR≈2.5%) detection ratio are shown in green, red, and blue, respectively. Before April 20, all scenarios and detection rates yield similar results for the detected cases while total cases show the obvious differences for different detection ratios. Minor deviations in detected cases before April 20 result from slightly different fits to the weekly fluctuations in tests administered. Notice the different time scale for scenario D where the epidemic were to subside within a few months rather than years